2010 March 12: EPA Policy Assessment for the review of particulate matter NAAQS

 

Policy Assessment

for the Review of the Particulate Matter

National Ambient Air Quality Standards

First External Review Draft

March 2010

DISCLAIMER

This draft document has been prepared by staff from the Ambient Standards Group,

Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Any

opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations are those of the authors and do not

necessarily reflect the views of the EPA. This document is being circulated to obtain review and

comment from the Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee (CASAC) and the general public.

Comments on this draft document should be addressed to Beth Hassett-Sipple, U.S.

Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, C504-06,

Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711 (email: hassett-sipple.beth@epa.gov).

EPA 452/P-10-003

March 2010

Policy Assessment

for the Review of the Particulate Matter

National Ambient Air Quality Standards

First External Review Draft

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Office of Air and Radiation

Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards

Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711

This page left intentionally blank.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION…………………………………………………………………………………………………. 1-1

1.1 PURPOSE…………………………………………………………………………………………………… 1-1

1.2 BACKGROUND ………………………………………………………………………………………….1-2

1.2.1 Legislative Requirements………………………………………………………………………1-2

1.2.2 Overview of the NAAQS Review Process ……………………………………………… 1-3

1.2.3 History of PM NAAQS Reviews…………………………………………………………… 1-5

1.2.4 Litigation Related to the 2006 PM Standards………………………………………… 1-10

1.2.5 Current PM NAAQS Review………………………………………………………………. 1-11

1.3 GENERAL APPROACH AND ORGANIZATION OF THIS DOCUMENT…….. 1-12

1.4 REFERENCES …………………………………………………………………………………………..1-14

2 REVIEW OF THE PRIMARY STANDARDS FOR FINE PARTICLES ………………… 2-1

2.1 APPROACH………………………………………………………………………………………………..2-2

2.1.1 Approaches Used in Previous Reviews ………………………………………………….. 2-3

2.1.1.1 Review Completed in 1997……………………………………………………. 2-3

2.1.1.2 Review Completed in 2006……………………………………………………. 2-5

2.1.2 Remand of Primary Annual PM2.5 Standard ……………………………………………. 2-8

2.1.3 Current Approach……………………………………………………………………………….2-10

2.2 ADEQUACY OF CURRENT STANDARDS ……………………………………………….. 2-14

2.2.1 Evidence-based Considerations ……………………………………………………………2-15

2.2.2 Risk-based Considerations…………………………………………………………………..2-43

2.2.3 Preliminary Staff Conclusions on Adequacy of Current Standards…………… 2-55

2.3 CONSIDERATION OF ALTERNATIVE STANDARDS ………………………………. 2-56

2.3.1 Indicator ……………………………………………………………………………………………2-56

2.3.2 Averaging Times………………………………………………………………………………..2-66

2.3.3 Forms ……………………………………………………………………………………………….2-71

2.3.3.1 Form of the Annual Standard……………………………………………….. 2-71

2.3.3.2 Form of the 24-Hour Standard……………………………………………… 2-73

2.3.4 Alternative Levels to Address Health Effects Related to Long-term PM

2.5

Exposures ………………………………………………………………………………………….. 2-74

2.3.4.1 Evidence-based Considerations …………………………………………….2-74

2.3.4.2 Risk-based Considerations……………………………………………………2-81

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2.3.5 Alternative Levels to Address Health Effects Related to Short-term PM

2.5

Exposures ………………………………………………………………………………………….. 2-88

2.3.5.1 Evidence-based Considerations …………………………………………….2-89

2.3.5.2 Risk-based Considerations to Inform Alternative Levels…………. 2-99

2.3.6 Preliminary Staff Conclusions on Alternative Levels to Address Health Effects

Related to Long- and Short-term PM

2.5 Exposures ………………………………… 2-104

2.4 PRELIMINARY STAFF CONCLUSIONS ON ALTERNATIVE FINE PARTICLE

STANDARDS………………………………………………………………………………………….. 2-108

2.5 KEY UNCERTAINTIES AND AREAS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH AND DATA

COLLECTION ………………………………………………………………………………………… 2-110

2.6 REFERENCES …………………………………………………………………………………………2-111

3 REVIEW OF THE PRIMARY STANDARD FOR THORACIC COARSE

PARTICLES………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 3-1

3.1 APPROACH………………………………………………………………………………………………..3-1

3.1.1 Approaches Used in Previous Reviews ………………………………………………….. 3-2

3.1.1.1 Reviews Completed in 1987 and 1997 …………………………………………. 3-2

3.1.1.2 Review Completed in 2006…………………………………………………………. 3-3

3.1.2 Litigation of 2006 Final Rule for thoracic coarse particles ……………………….. 3-5

3.1.3 Approach in the Current Review …………………………………………………………… 3-7

3.2 ADEQUACY OF THE EXISTING PM10 STANDARD …………………………………… 3-8

3.2.1 Evidence of Effects Related to Ambient Thoracic Coarse Particles …………… 3-9

3.2.2 Preliminary Staff Conclusions on Adequacy of Current PM

10 Standard……. 3-22

3.3 CONSIDERATION OF POTENTIAL ALTERNATIVE STANDARDS ………….. 3-25

3.3.1 Indicator……………………………………………………………………………………………3-26

3.3.2 Consideration of Indicator in the Review Completed in 2006 …………………. 3-26

3.3.3 Evidence-Based Consideration of Indicator in the Current Review………….. 3-31

3.3.4 Averaging Time …………………………………………………………………………………3-34

3.3.5 Level and Form…………………………………………………………………………………. 3-35

3.3.6 Form…………………………………………………………………………………………………3-37

3.3.7 Level ………………………………………………………………………………………………..3-37

3.4 KEY UNCERTAINTIES AND AREAS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH AND DATA

COLLECTION …………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 3-39

3.5 REFERENCES …………………………………………………………………………………………..3-39

4 REVIEW OF THE SECONDARY STANDARDS FOR VISIBILITY-RELATED

EFFECTS…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 4-1

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4.1 APPROACH………………………………………………………………………………………………..4-2

4.1.1 Approaches Used in Previous Reviews ………………………………………………….. 4-2

4.1.2 Remand of Secondary PM

2.5 Standards ………………………………………………….. 4-8

4.1.3 Current Approach ………………………………………………………………………………..4-9

4.2 ADEQUACY OF CURRENT STANDARDS ……………………………………………….. 4-10

4.2.1 Evidence-based Considerations ……………………………………………………………4-10

4.2.2 Summary…………………………………………………………………………………………..4-28

4.3 CONSIDERATION OF ALTERNATIVE STANDARDS ………………………………. 4-29

4.3.1 Nature of the Indicator……………………………………………………………………….. 4-30

4.3.2 Averaging and Applicable Times ………………………………………………………… 4-32

4.3.3 Alternative Levels/Forms ……………………………………………………………………4-33

4.3.4 Performance of Alternative Standards………………………………………………….. 4-35

4.4 PRELIMINARY STAFF CONCLUSIONS ON ALTERNATIVE

SECONDARY PM STANDARDS FOR VISIBILITY-RELATED

EFFECTS…………………………………………………………………………………………………..4-42

4.5 REFERENCES …………………………………………………………………………………………..4-45

APPENDIX 4A. INFORMATION REGARDING THE 1-HOUR PM2.5 MASS

INDICATOR………………………………………………………………………………………………………… A-1

5 REVIEW OF THE SECONDARY STANDARDS FOR OTHER WELFARE

EFFECTS…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 5-1

5.1 APPROACH………………………………………………………………………………………………..5-2

5.1.1 Approaches Used in Previous Reviews ………………………………………………….. 5-2

5.1.2 Scope of Current NAAQS Reviews……………………………………………………….. 5-3

5.1.3 Current Approach ………………………………………………………………………………..5-6

5.2 CLIMATE…………………………………………………………………………………………………… 5-6

5.2.1 Scope………………………………………………………………………………………………….5-7

5.2.2 Adequacy of the Current Standard…………………………………………………………. 5-8

5.2.3 Preliminary Staff Conclusions ……………………………………………………………..5-11

5.2.4 Key Uncertainties and Areas for Future Research and Data Collection…….. 5-12

5.3 ECOLOGICAL EFFECTS …………………………………………………………………………..5-13

5.3.1 Scope………………………………………………………………………………………………..5-13

5.3.2 Adequacy of the Current Standard……………………………………………………….. 5-16

5.3.3 Preliminary Staff Conclusions ……………………………………………………………..5-23

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5.3.4 Key Uncertainties and Areas for Future Research and Data Collection…….. 5-24

5.4 MATERIALS……………………………………………………………………………………………..5-25

5.4.1 Scope………………………………………………………………………………………………..5-25

5.4.2 Adequacy of the Current Standard……………………………………………………….. 5-25

5.4.3 Preliminary Staff Conclusions ……………………………………………………………..5-27

5.4.4 Key Uncertainties and Areas for Future Research and Data Collection…….. 5-28

5.5 REFERENCES …………………………………………………………………………………………..5-28

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